Despite international maritime law’s cornerstone principle of freedom of navigation, Iran has repeatedly insisted on its right to control shipping. Tehran has threatened to attack commercial vessels attempting passage on unapproved routes, creating a hostile environment for maritime commerce.

On Saturday, the United Arab Emirates condemned Tehran over what it described as an Iranian missile attack on a vessel owned by the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company. Such incidents have contributed to a dangerous environment for global shipping infrastructure.

At least 64 violent incidents and 17 deaths involving commercial vessels have occurred in the region since the war began, according to the International Maritime Organization. Most of these hostile actions have been blamed on Iran, further complicating any potential diplomatic resolution.

Global Market Paradox

Brent futures for October stood at $84.11 a barrel at 7:30 GMT, up 0.7 percent. Following the latest gains, the global benchmark was up about 16 percent compared to before the start of the US and Israel’s war on Iran. This significant price hike reflects the market's assessment of long-term supply risks.

Waterer, the KCM Trade analyst, said the latest jump in oil prices reflects market scepticism about how quickly negotiators can reach a workable deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. He warned that even if an agreement is eventually announced, history suggests these understandings can prove fragile.

That residual risk of reversal would likely limit how far oil prices could fall in the event of a diplomatic breakthrough, according to Waterer. The market remains wary that any cessation of hostilities could be temporary, sustaining high energy costs for consumers and industries worldwide.

Despite renewed volatility in energy markets, Asian stocks rose on Monday, with benchmark indices in Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong making substantial gains. Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 2.1 percent, while South Korea’s Kospi and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index finished up 0.65 percent and 1.1 percent, respectively.

The gains in Asia came after US stocks hit an all-time high on Friday. This positive momentum in equity markets was driven by weaker-than-expected jobs data, which lowered expectations of interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve. Investors appear to be prioritizing monetary policy trends over immediate energy supply shocks.

Strait of Hormuz Impacts Future Energy Outlook

The ongoing blockade and Iran’s hardline demands continue to distort global energy markets, keeping Brent crude elevated amid geopolitical uncertainty. With shipping activities reduced to a fraction of pre-war levels and violent incidents accumulating, the risk premium remains firmly entrenched. Unless a durable diplomatic framework addressing sanctions and reparations is established, energy prices will likely remain volatile. Long-term disruptions could force structural changes in global supply chains as nations seek alternative energy sources and shipping routes to mitigate the risk of future blockades.