Conflicting White House messages and soaring energy costs threaten Republican midterm prospects.
President Donald Trump recently highlighted gas prices below 2.30 dollars per gallon as a major economic win during his State of the Union address last month. He touted this progress heading into the midterms, calling previous peak prices over 6 dollars a disaster. However, just two weeks later, his war with Iran threatens to undermine that pitch entirely. Oil prices spiked to levels not seen since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. This volatility has injected new uncertainty into GOP plans to tout their economic progress.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated during a briefing Tuesday that Iran’s mullahs are desperate and scrambling. He promised it would be the most intense day of strikes inside Iran. Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the military would look at options to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. The strait is effectively closed because of the conflict, ratcheting up global energy anxieties significantly. While Trump suggested the war could end soon, leaving prices dropping from 120 dollars, the roller coaster left his party anxious about the political fallout.
Mitchell Brown, a Republican pollster working on midterm races, explained that gas was one thing they have been touting as an economic win. A reversal on that obviously makes the message harder for candidates. The volatility has injected new uncertainty into GOP plans. Even as the White House asserted price hikes would be temporary, it became clear Trump sought to stem political fallout. In a social media post late Monday, the president warned Iran would be hit twenty times harder if they stop oil flow. However, conservative influencer Matt Walsh soon told followers they are not helping chances in midterms by pretending rising prices are good messaging.
Neera Tanden, now leading the Center for American Progress, said price jumps under Trump could be especially damaging because there is an easy story to tell about how policies caused them. Republicans were mostly supportive of strikes initially, but independents opposed them by about 2 to 1. Three-quarters of Americans are concerned about the possibility of a full-scale war with Iran. Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters he is always concerned about the price of oil. The administration is discussing options such as asking producers to drill more or releasing oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
The political stakes rely heavily on whether the conflict resolves quickly. If gas prices remain elevated, the administration faces significant backlash. Officials are working to find quick solutions to mitigate economic damage before voters decide in the upcoming midterms. Martha Zoller noted candidates hear people understand it is short-term but worry about costs.
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