Miad Maleki is a former U.S. Treasury official who worked on Iran sanctions efforts. He now serves as a senior adviser at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Maleki stated that the Gaolan port hosts some of the largest liquid chemical storage terminals in south China. His assessment concludes the two vessels now in transit are carrying sodium perchlorate based on transfer history and vessel movements.

Port Operations and Chinese Policy

A dozen other IRISL ships have visited the port since the start of the year. Experts said it would be notable for Beijing to allow any vessels to depart in this moment bound for Iran with weapons-related material. They expected China, America’s chief and most powerful strategic rival, to be wary of such an action while the United States and Iran are in direct combat.

Isaac Kardon is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He told the Washington Post that China could have held these vessels at port. He noted Beijing could have imposed an administrative delay or invented a customs hold using any number of bureaucratic tools. Instead, they did not. This represents a deliberate policy choice made during an active war in which Beijing publicly calls for restraint.

Although IRISL operates as a large commercial carrier, Kardon said the circumstances of these shipments strongly suggest the cargo is sodium perchlorate. He noted that given the track record, the most parsimonious explanation is that they are loading the same commodity they have been shuttling for the past year-plus. The Chinese Embassy in Washington did not respond to messages seeking comment. The Pentagon, the White House, and the U.S. Treasury Department also did not respond to requests for comment.

Expert Analysis and Geopolitical Implications

Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control announced sanctions last year aimed in part at interrupting Iran’s ballistic missile production. These measures focus on stopping the flow of sodium perchlorate and dioctyl sebacate from China to Iran. Sodium perchlorate is used to produce ammonium perchlorate. Ammonium perchlorate and dioctyl sebacate can be used in the solid propellants that power ballistic missiles.

The United States has for years accused China of providing its ally Iran with missile-related technology and materials. Beijing has often denied direct assistance and said the U.S. accusations overstate commercial or dual-use trade. If the ships that departed Gaolan port this week are carrying sodium perchlorate, that would be a departure from China’s previous approach to balancing its interests in the region.

Grant Rumley is a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. He noted that with missiles and drones raining down on gulf states, any show of support like this towards Iran risks souring China’s relations with a number of gulf countries. He described it as an uncharacteristically bold strategy. The U.S. and Israel strikes have hammered Iran’s missile storage bunkers and underground depots. Isaac Kardon told the Washington Post that Tehran’s need for propellant precursors just went from urgent to existential.

Current Movements of Other Vessels

As of Saturday, the ships were in the South China Sea. AIS data provides real-time information about vessel position, draft, speed, course and destination among other details. The data was provided by the global intelligence company Kpler. The Barzin has dropped anchor off the coast of Malaysia. Its destination remains the port in Bandar Abbas, some 4,000 miles away, where it is expected to arrive next Saturday. The Shabdis is currently sailing with about 4,500 miles to go. It is expected to arrive at Iran’s Chabahar part on March 16. Both ports are in the Strait of Hormuz and host major Iranian naval bases.

Satellite imagery from Monday shows black smoke spewing from multiple sites after Bandar Abbas was struck in the U.S. and Israeli barrages that began last weekend. AIS data suggests some of the ships lately have been forced to shift their planned routes due to the U.S.-Israeli strikes. Three that were en route to Bandar Abbas, the Hamouna, Abyan and Arzin, changed their AIS destination to the high seas after the strikes began. On Saturday they were near Iranian waters. Another, the Basht, stopped transmitting AIS data Thursday around 13 miles from Bandar Abbas.

Meanwhile, at least two IRISL-owned ships are on their way to the Gaolan port. The other 12 IRISL-owned ships that have visited Gaolan port since the start of the year all docked at the same terminal as the Barzin and the Shabdis. Draft changes suggest all but one picked up cargo. Some of the ships cycled through Gaolan port on a nearly daily cadence during a one-week period in mid-February as U.S. forces amassed near Iran and a second round of nuclear talks ended without a breakthrough.

Draft analysis indicates that many of the vessels unloaded their cargo at Iran’s Shahid Rajaee port, which handles the great majority of the country’s container trade. Last year, after an explosion at the port killed at least 17 people, a Post examination of visuals showed the blast was caused by a chemical fire that began in a shipping container. Experts said the color of smoke indicated that perchlorates were present.

Key Takeaways

• Two IRISL ships departed Gaolan port with suspected sodium perchlorate cargo.
• The U.S. accuses Iran of using this material for ballistic missile solid rocket fuel.
• China allowed the vessels to leave despite active combat between the U.S. and Iran.
• Experts view this as a deliberate policy choice by Beijing during an active war.
• Other IRISL ships have visited the port frequently since the start of the year.
• Some vessels altered routes due to recent U.S.-Israeli strikes in the region.

Summary

Two Iranian vessels left a Chinese chemical-storage port this week laden with cargo linked to ballistic missile production. The United States has accused the shipping company of supplying material to Tehran’s program. Experts believe the cargo is sodium perchlorate, a key precursor for solid rocket fuel. China allowed the ships to depart despite high tensions and active conflict between Washington and Tehran. This action represents a deliberate policy choice by Beijing during an active war. Other vessels have visited the port frequently, and some recently altered routes due to regional strikes. The movement of this cargo underscores the ongoing concerns regarding military supply chains in the region.