Siddaramaiah’s camp is currently weighing its options. Reports suggest he told Rahul Gandhi that he had no desire to enter national politics, but Gandhi maintained the need for his presence in the central leadership. Siddaramaiah has sought time to consult his loyalists before making a final decision. During these talks, he indicated a preference to step down rather than confront Rahul, who has backed him for the CM post twice despite Siddaramaiah being viewed as an outsider within the party hierarchy.

This development marks a long-awaited moment for DK Shivakumar, who has been advocating for a rotational tenure since the government's formation. Shivakumar served as the party chief when Congress defeated the BJP in the 2023 state elections. His camp has consistently maintained that the rotational agreement was a condition for the government's creation. With Siddaramaiah considering his options, Shivakumar’s path to the CM post appears to be clearing, though complications remain.

Sources mention discussions within Siddaramaiah's circle about registering protest, either by refusing to resign or by stepping down and declining any national role. If Siddaramaiah agrees to shift to the Rajya Sabha, it could necessitate a change in the Leader of the Opposition post, currently held by Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge. Additionally, Rahul’s team discussed offering a cabinet berth to Siddaramaiah’s son, Yathindra, as part of the negotiations.

The timing of this shift coincides with the upcoming elections to four Upper House seats from Karnataka in June. Congress is confident of winning at least three of these seats. Many consider Siddaramaiah a strong possibility for the RS to help the party consolidate the OBC vote base. The party is closely monitoring whether Siddaramaiah will quietly allow Shivakumar to replace him or if he will resist, potentially opening the way for a third candidate as a compromise.

Siddaramaiah’s camp has maintained that he remains the overwhelming choice of the legislature party, submitting a list of 108 signatures to underscore his position. Following AICC deliberations, he met with loyal ministers and MLAs at KG George’s Delhi residence. Further consultations in Bengaluru are expected before a final decision is made.

Strategic Implications of the Leadership Shift

A senior leader highlighted that a "cabinet reshuffle" in the state, as previously sought by Siddaramaiah, was not discussed in the AICC meetings, indicating that his continuation was not guaranteed. The Congress leadership is keen to avoid a "Rajasthan-like crisis" and has therefore preferred a negotiated transition over a tense resolution. Insiders argue that any change would only occur with Siddaramaiah’s consent, mindful of his seniority and the political advantage his OBC social engineering provides. The party is cautious about the ramifications of ejecting him, given the statewide clout of his Kuruba community.

Future Impacts on Karnataka Politics

The potential acceptance of a Rajya Sabha seat by Siddaramaiah would formally accelerate the Karnataka Congress transition, likely resulting in DK Shivakumar assuming the Chief Minister’s role. If Siddaramaiah agrees, the party may consolidate its OBC vote base through his RS presence, while Shivakumar stabilizes state administration. However, resistance could trigger internal factionalism, forcing a compromise candidate or creating a volatile political environment ahead of the upcoming legislative council polls. The outcome of Siddaramaiah’s decision within the next week will dictate the stability of the Congress government in the state.