US Amphibious Forces Deploy as Kharg Island Attack Risk Skyrockets

Earlier this month, Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid declared that destroying the terminal would "cripple Iran's economy and topple the regime," asserting that Israel "must destroy all of Iran's oil fields and energy industry on Kharg Island." This rhetoric underscores the high stakes involved if a US ground attack were to occur. The island holds a storage capacity estimated at roughly 30 million barrels, with trade intelligence firm Kpler reporting that about 18 million barrels of crude are currently stored there.

The military component of a potential strike involves two Marine Expeditionary Units (MEU) that have recently deployed to the Middle East. These units specialize in rapid-response amphibious landings and raids from Navy amphibious ships. James Stavridis, NATO's former supreme allied commander, noted that the ships of a MEU "pack a lot of combat capability." However, he cautioned that any ground operation would require passing through the Strait of Hormuz and reaching the northern part of the gulf, where US forces would contend with Iranian drones, ballistic missiles, and mines.

Stavridis emphasized that "once in position off Kharg, the Marines would need ironclad air and sea superiority over at least 100 miles around the island." Beyond the tactical challenges, he questioned the strategic leverage such an operation would yield. "If the idea is to then bargain with Tehran for an opening of the Strait of Hormuz, it is unclear that the remaining leaders of the regime would be cowed by the threat of losing Kharg," Stavridis wrote. He added that Iran might balk at agreeing to give up anything for the island, suggesting the operation could fail to achieve its political objectives.

Alongside the risk of potential US casualties, Richard Haass, former president of the Council on Foreign Relations, warned that any mission on Kharg would likely "further erode US missile stockpiles." Haass noted that while the exact reason for the US weighing a seizure is unclear, many would view it as "a US attempt to seize Iranian oil." The strategic implications extend beyond immediate military outcomes, potentially reshaping regional alliances and global energy markets.

Iran Fortifies Defenses Against Potential Strike

Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf stated on Wednesday that enemies, supported by a regional country, are preparing to occupy one of the country's islands. Ghalibaf warned that "all enemy movements are under the full surveillance of our armed forces" and that any deviation would result in "relentless attacks" on vital infrastructure. Sources familiar with US intelligence reporting indicate that Iran has been preparing for a potential US operation by laying traps and moving additional military personnel and air defenses to Kharg Island.

The island already possesses layered defenses, and sources say Iranians have moved additional shoulder-fired, surface-to-air guided missile systems, known as MANPADs, there in recent weeks. Furthermore, Iran has been laying anti-personnel and anti-armor mines around the island, including on the shoreline. Earlier this month, President Trump stated that the US had bombed "every military target" on the island and threatened further attacks on oil infrastructure if Iran continued blocking ships. Video footage geolocated by CNN showed strikes on the island's airport facilities.

Despite Trump's history of discussing the island as far back as 1988, saying he would "go in and take it" after one bullet was fired at US forces, many inside the administration remain wary. While White House officials believe taking Kharg would "totally bankrupt" Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and potentially end the war swiftly, the requirement for a significant number of ground troops has raised serious concerns among senior advisors.

Gulf allies are privately urging the Trump administration against prolonging the war by committing boots on the ground to occupy Kharg Island. A senior Gulf official expressed concern that such an occupation would result in high casualties, likely triggering Iranian retaliation against Gulf countries' infrastructure and extending the conflict. Iranian officials have echoed these warnings; Alireza Tangsiri, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy chief, has described Iran's islands across the Persian Gulf as "fortified strongholds" that would receive a "decisive response" if an enemy makes a mistake.

Strategic Implications of a Kharg Island Assault

The potential for a US ground attack on Kharg Island presents a complex strategic dilemma that extends far beyond the immediate tactical engagement. While the island is the economic heart of Iran's oil sector, holding it may not compel the regime to open the Strait of Hormuz. The high probability of Iranian retaliation against Gulf allies and the depletion of US missile stockpiles suggest that the cost-benefit analysis of such an operation is fraught with uncertainty. The region stands at a critical juncture where military action could escalate tensions rather than resolve them, potentially leading to a prolonged conflict with severe global economic consequences.