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A record 103 days pass without an Atlantic hurricane, as El Niño’s powerful wind shear stifles storm formation, marking the least active season in decades.
It has been 103 days since the start of the Atlantic hurricane season with no hurricanes forming in the ocean, establishing a new record-long wait. This unprecedented quiet is directly driven by a powerful El Niño event that is strangling fledgling storms before they can develop.
Until September 11, the latest first hurricanes were Gustav in 2002 and Humberto in 2013. However, satellite tracking began in 1966, meaning earlier dates might have been misidentified. The first hurricane is now more than a month overdue, with no prospects for one appearing in the foreseeable future.
Thursday marked the statistical peak of the season, yet activity remains virtually non-existent. According to Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane expert at Colorado State University, the season is now the least active one since 1950. There are only five short-lived tropical storms to date, highlighting the severity of the suppression.
The only system that even attempted to become a hurricane was tiny Tropical Storm Edouard on September 1. It was just 14 mph shy of hurricane strength and intensifying when it made landfall near the Texas-Louisiana border. This landfall cut it off from the Gulf’s warm water fuel, ending its potential growth.
Looking forward, just over 50% of the entire season’s activity typically occurs after September 10. Despite this potential, El Niño is likely to have a decisive say in stifling the Atlantic’s final stretch this year.
Last year’s first hurricane appeared in mid-August, and three more spun up in the second half of September. If the current quiet season repeats last year’s avoidance of landfall, it will be the first back-to-back years without a hurricane landfall since 2009 and 2010.
However, hurricanes can find windows of opportunity even in inactive years. Not a single season since 1966 has gone by without one. Most notably, Category 5 Hurricane Andrew’s catastrophic South Florida landfall in August 1992 occurred in a season with just seven storms.
September is typically hurricane season’s peak because storm-fueling warm water is at its most expansive and hottest alongside ripe atmospheric factors. On average, about two to three hurricanes develop during this month. The results can be dangerous, as proven by 2024’s Helene and 2022’s Ian, which slammed the US Gulf Coast as Category 4s.
Water temperatures are currently warm enough for hurricanes, but El Niño-fueled wind shear has soured the situation. Wind shear involves changes in wind speed and direction at different levels of the atmosphere. It acts as tropical-system kryptonite, capable of shredding apart anything from budding tropical systems to fully developed hurricanes.
The shear has been record-strong this summer across the Atlantic’s so-called main development region. This area extends from Africa through the Caribbean. According to Klotzbach, many storms get their start in this region at the height of the season, from mid-August to early October. This year, however, it has been nearly shut down.
Tropical Storm Dolly is the only system that has formed in this part of the ocean so far in 2026. A wall of wind shear ripped it apart just 24 hours later. A few other systems have tried to develop, but they were also defeated by the shear.
El Niño’s storm-killing winds will remain an obstacle for development in hurricane season’s back stretch. Despite this, getting complacent is not advised. Late-season storms tend to develop closer to the US, including in the Gulf and off the Southeast coast. These areas tend to be affected less by El Niño’s wind shear, so they will be watched closely.
As we have already learned this year, it does not take a hurricane-strength system to cause significant impacts. In a warming world, tropical systems are becoming wetter, increasing the risk of flooding.
Tropical Storm Arthur’s remnants fueled widespread flooding along the central Gulf Coast in June. Cottonport, Louisiana, was drenched by 29.06 inches of rain in 24 hours. This obliterated the previous state record of 22 inches set in 1962. The record is still being reviewed and certified.
Heavy rain from Tropical Storm Edouard less than two weeks ago resulted in dangerous flash flooding and water rescues in eastern Texas. A month’s worth of rain fell in an hour, and rainfall totals topped 20 inches in some areas north of Beaumont.
While the current lack of hurricane activity is historic, the potential for late-season impacts remains due to warmer waters and increased rainfall intensity. The suppression of storms by El Niño is significant, but as seen with Arthur and Edouard, non-hurricane tropical systems still pose severe flood risks. The region must remain vigilant as the season progresses, particularly in areas less affected by wind shear.
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