Chinese leader Xi Jinping arrives in Pyongyang to recalibrate a strained alliance, aiming to balance security needs against North Korea’s deepening military ties with Russia.
For Chinese leader Xi Jinping, North Korea represents a neighbor that Beijing can neither control nor afford to lose. Although the two nations often describe their relationship as "forged in blood" due to the Korean War, recent years have seen mistrust strain their ties. Now, Beijing is attempting to reassert sway over this strategically vital but unpredictable partner.
Xi Jinping’s visit, which began with his arrival in Pyongyang on Monday, is driven less by friendship and more by the need for leverage. While Seoul believes Beijing may aim to position itself as a mediator between Pyongyang and the United States, Western diplomatic sources suggest other motives are primary. China has grown increasingly concerned about the expanding partnership between Pyongyang and Moscow.
After meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin last week, Xi likely aims to ensure he keeps Kim Jong Un in check as Beijing increases its global presence. The cooling of ties between Beijing and Pyongyang became evident in late 2024. The two sides barely marked the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations, with muted public messaging and no senior-level exchanges. This stood in stark contrast to Pyongyang’s warmening relationship with Moscow.
The deepening closeness between North Korea and Russia has unsettled Beijing. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, military cooperation expanded, culminating in a mutual defense pact signed during Putin’s 2024 visit. A BBC investigation estimates that approximately 2,300 North Korean soldiers have died fighting for Russia. Pyongyang is also accused of supplying ammunition for Russia’s war effort in exchange for oil and aid.
This development has quietly rattled Beijing, according to Ankit Panda, a nuclear policy specialist at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Panda notes that China wants to protect its interests vis-a-vis North Korea during the rapid convergence between Moscow and Pyongyang. China holds only one formal defense treaty, which is with North Korea. Consequently, Beijing is unlikely to welcome a scenario where Russia becomes the dominant influence in Pyongyang, as a more confident, less dependent Kim would reduce Chinese leverage.
Beijing has responded by attempting to reset the relationship. Late last year, Xi invited Kim to a military parade in Beijing, keeping him prominently by his side alongside Putin. This marked their first formal summit in six years. Xi praised the two as "good neighbours, good friends and good comrades bound by a shared destiny," calling for closer strategic coordination. Notably absent from these public statements was any mention of North Korea’s nuclear arsenal.
Lee Seong-hyon, a visiting scholar at the Harvard University Asia Center, describes Beijing’s feelings toward the Moscow-Pyongyang partnership as mixed. On one hand, the alliance distracts Washington and complicates US strategy, which indirectly benefits China. On the other hand, expanding military cooperation could spark a stronger trilateral military response from the US, Japan, and South Korea, which worries Beijing.
China does not endorse Pyongyang’s nuclear program because it increases US involvement in the region. Yet, Beijing also avoids confronting the issue directly. In 2022, China and Russia vetoed a US-led UN resolution for new sanctions over North Korean missile tests. Victor Cha, president of the foreign policy department at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, argues that a strong stance against Pyongyang would only push North Korea closer to Putin.
Kim cannot afford to alienate China, his biggest aid source. Chinese exports to North Korea surged to approximately $2.3 billion last year, the highest level in six years. Passenger train services between Beijing and Pyongyang restarted earlier this year after a six-year hiatus. Analysts view this as a calculated effort by Beijing to pull Pyongyang back into its orbit.
For Kim, this is a pragmatic choice. If the war in Ukraine ends, Russia’s need for North Korean support may diminish. Unlike an isolated Putin, Xi has been welcoming world leaders to Beijing. Kim needs to ensure he is not left relying on a weakening partner. The relationship has been troubled since Kim inherited power, prioritizing his own nuclear program over his father’s reliance on Beijing. In his first six years, Kim oversaw 90 ballistic missile tests and four nuclear detonations.
North Korea serves as both a buffer and a burden for China. It keeps US forces at arm's length but its weapons tests destabilize the region. Kim wants Chinese protection without Chinese control. While neither side fully trusts the other, both believe they need the other, keeping them talking for now.
The visit underscores a delicate diplomatic balancing act for Beijing. By restoring high-level contact and trade, China aims to prevent North Korea from becoming entirely dependent on Moscow. However, Beijing remains cautious about fully endorsing Pyongyang’s nuclear ambitions to avoid provoking a stronger Western military presence in the region. This renewed engagement suggests that China views the preservation of influence in Pyongyang as critical to its own national security. As the geopolitical landscape shifts, Beijing will likely continue to use economic incentives and diplomatic pressure to manage North Korea’s actions, ensuring that Pyongyang remains a buffer state rather than an independent actor aligned solely with Russia.
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