Wisconsin Supreme Court election: Taylor seeks to cement liberal majority over Lazar

Key Takeaways

• Chris Taylor leads fundraising with over $5.6 million against Maria Lazar's $900,000 in the Wisconsin Supreme Court election.
• The race determines if liberals extend their 4-3 majority to a potential 5-2 control through the end of the decade.
• Candidates debated conflicting views on abortion rights and voter ID laws during their single joint appearance.
• Top Democratic figures including Rahm Emanuel and Barack Obama have mobilized to support Taylor's campaign efforts.
• Conservative strategist Mark Graul warns of a resource disparity that challenges their path to a majority on the court.

Democrats are attempting to deliver another setback to conservatives in the upcoming Tuesday election for the Wisconsin Supreme Court. This contest follows a period where liberals secured a 4-3 majority, a position they now hope to solidify against a challenge from the right. The primary objective for liberal candidates is to expand their majority before the state enters a new political decade.

The election features conservative judge Maria Lazar and liberal judge Chris Taylor as the two contenders to replace the retiring conservative Justice Rebecca Bradley. Although the outcome will not immediately flip the court's control, the result will be critical for determining whether liberals can maintain their hold on the state's highest judicial body. A victory for the liberal side could potentially secure their dominance through the end of the decade.

The contest has notably flown under the radar compared to the highly publicized spring 2025 judicial election. That previous race became the most expensive judicial contest in US history, fueled by millions from Elon Musk and outside groups. The current cycle presents a less nationalized atmosphere, though the stakes remain high for the future of the state's legal landscape.

A win for the liberal candidate in this Tuesday election could have far-reaching implications for Wisconsin, a key battleground state. The outcome serves as a gauge for Democratic enthusiasm and a test of Republican voter turnout capabilities in a midterm environment without a presidential race on the ballot. The race also occurs amidst competitive midterm elections and a looming presidential contest in 2028.

Devin Remiker, chair of Wisconsin's Democratic Party, emphasized the long-term importance of the vote. Remiker stated it is critical to ensure a pro-democracy majority on the bench that lasts through the next presidential election and extends all the way to 2030. Top Democrats, including several figures eyeing potential 2028 runs, have actively sought to boost Taylor's campaign.

Former US Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel visited the state recently to support the liberal campaign. Additionally, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, and Connecticut Senator Chris Murphy have signed fundraising emails for Taylor. Eric Holder, who leads the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, also campaigned in the state during the final stretch. Former President Barack Obama contributed by posting an online call to turn out for the liberal candidate.

Financial dynamics have defined much of this campaign. A Marquette Law School poll from mid-March showed that 53% of registered voters remained undecided, with Taylor holding a slight 23% lead over Lazar's 17%. Taylor has maintained a significant financial advantage, having raised more than $5.6 million since entering the race in May. In contrast, Lazar, who entered the race in the fall, has raised nearly $900,000 according to campaign filing reports.

Total spending in the race has topped $6 million, a figure far below the more than $80 million spent in the previous year's nationalized contest. Most of the spending in this year's Wisconsin Supreme Court election has come directly from Taylor and her allies. Mark Graul, a GOP strategist, noted that the money disparity is a warning sign for conservatives, arguing that a Taylor victory would highlight her resource advantage.

Graul, who managed races for conservative Justice Annette Ziegler, suggested that successful conservative candidates historically possess prior experience as prosecutors and strong law enforcement backing. He believes Lazar fits this profile but argued that conservatives must focus on winning back suburban voters, particularly in the southeast part of the state.

Nathan Conrad, a spokesperson for Lazar's campaign, acknowledged the financial challenge, stating that the team is focusing laser-pointedly on where their dollars are going. Conrad emphasized their goal of hitting target voters with Lazar's message as often as possible before Election Day.

Diverging Views on Social Issues

The candidates faced off in their lone debate on Thursday night, where they sparred over abortion rights. This discussion followed a recent ruling by the liberal majority that struck down the state's 176-year-old abortion ban. Lazar argued that the Supreme Court moved legal authority over abortion to the states and stated she would honor the state's ban on abortions after 20 weeks, labeling it a compromise.

Taylor criticized Lazar's position as tragic, citing victims of rape and incest and women who have lost lives due to lack of help. Taylor argued that her opponent would take the state backwards while she would take it forwards. Lazar responded to these claims by expressing agitation and asserting that she has never wanted women injured and prioritizes the health and life of the mother.

The debate also covered election integrity, occurring shortly after President Donald Trump signed an executive order to crack down on mail-in voting. Taylor expressed concern about efforts to suppress the vote, arguing for a strong Supreme Court to hold the federal government accountable. Lazar stated she would uphold the state's voter ID law, which voters approved last year, while also calling early and mail-in voting responsible and necessary. She emphasized that Wisconsin elections are safe and secure.

Lazar also sought to distance herself from those who refuse to acknowledge Trump's 2020 election loss, explicitly stating that Joe Biden did win. This came nearly six years after Trump's efforts to overturn those results.

Wisconsin Supreme Court election outcomes shape future control

The election results will determine whether liberals can expand their majority from 4-3 to 5-2 if Taylor wins. This expansion would cement their control even further, especially with conservative Justice Annette Ziegler announcing her retirement for the 2027 election. The liberal winning streak in state Supreme Court races began in 2020, with the majority reclaimed in 2023 and extended last year when Justice Susan Crawford defeated Judge Brad Schimel.

Former Justice Rebecca Bradley warned of an alarming shift toward bitter partisanship on the court in her retirement announcement. She called for the conservative movement to take stock of its failures and fix the underlying problems. As the state swings between political parties on the presidential level, this judicial contest remains a critical indicator of the balance of power in Wisconsin's legal system.