Early trends in Assam reveal the BJP leading in 52 seats while the NDA holds a commanding position. As counting wraps up, key leaders react to the unfolding political landscape.
The early trends for the Assam Assembly Elections 2026 indicate a strong position for the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leading the charge. According to Election Commission (EC) officials, the NDA is ahead in 93 seats, while the Indian National Congress leads in 23 constituencies. The data, released for 121 of the state's 126 constituencies, shows the BJP leading in 74 seats, with its alliance partners Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and Bodoland Peoples’ Front (BPF) ahead in 10 and nine seats, respectively.
Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma is leading in the Jalukbari constituency, a seat he has held without fail since 2001. He faces opposition from Congress’s Bidisha Neog and Independent Dipika Das. Simultaneously, former Congress president Gaurav Gogoi is trailing in Jorhat against BJP’s Hitendra Nath Goswami. This race highlights the shifting dynamics, as Gogoi makes his electoral debut while Goswami, a five-time MLA, seeks a third consecutive term.
Pradyut Bordoloi, a former senior Congress leader, has joined the BJP and is leading in Dispur. His switch occurred ahead of the polls, after which the BJP fielded him in this critical Guwahati Lok Sabha segment. Bordoloi previously headed the Congress manifesto committee, making his defection a significant political event.
The election saw significant movement of high-profile candidates. Pradyut Bordoloi and Bhupen Borah, former senior Congress leaders, joined the BJP prior to the polls. Borah cited dissatisfaction with Congress leadership in Assam. Both are now leading in Dispur and Bihpuria, respectively. Other cabinet ministers from the NDA alliance are also securing leads. AGP’s Atul Bora and Keshab Mahanta, both ministers in Sarma’s cabinet, lead in Bokakhat and Kaliabor. BPF’s Charan Boro and others are also ahead in their respective constituencies.
Ministers Ranoj Pegu, Pijush Hazarika, Ashok Singhal, Prashanta Phukan, and Bimal Borah have established leads in Dhemaji, Jagiroad, Dhekiajuli, Dibrugarh, and Tingkhong. These early wins suggest a strong consolidation of the ruling alliance’s support base.
ECI data shows the BJP leading in 52 seats overall, with the Congress leading in 15. The Congress is also leading in Pakabetbari and Mangaldai. The Bodoland Peoples Front, Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP), and Asom Gana Parishad are leading in one seat each in some early trends. The AIUDF leads in two seats, while the CPI(M) and Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) lead in one constituency each.
Both alliances are targeting at least 64 seats, the simple majority required to form the government in the 126-member Assembly. The NDA’s lead in 93 seats puts them in a commanding position, while the Congress-led opposition alliance, dubbed the “Three-Gogoi Group,” hopes to turn the tide. The opposition alliance comprises six parties: Congress, Raijor Dal, AJP, CPI(M), All Party Hill Leaders Conference (APHLC), and CPI(ML).
Raijor Dal president Akhil Gogoi is leading in Sibsagar, a seat he won as an Independent in the previous assembly. He has expressed hope that the opposition will form the government, stating, “With 70-plus seats, we will form the government, and we will own the game.” Gogoi contested from Sivasagar, having won the last polls while imprisoned on sedition charges related to CAA protests.
AJP president Lurinjyoti Gogoi is also ahead in Khowang. The opposition’s campaign focused heavily on the leadership of these three Gogois, but early trends show the NDA maintaining a strong grip.
Candidates from both sides have expressed varying degrees of confidence. BJP’s Vijay Gupta from Guwahati Central stated, “The Bharatiya Janata Party is confident that its government is going to be formed for the third time... I want to thank PM Narendra Modi and CM Himanta Biswa Sarma.” Similarly, Pradyut Bordoloi claimed that people have voted overwhelmingly for the BJP, predicting a “BJP-led government.”
Congress president Gaurav Gogoi, despite trailing in Jorhat, remained cautious. “This is just the beginning, we will see how the counting is going on in the entire State,” he said, emphasizing the need to monitor every vote. Congress candidate Ajoy Kumar Gogoi from Demow also voiced optimism, hoping the results would reflect the public’s aspirations for a Congress government.
The counting process is being conducted at 40 centers across the state’s 35 districts. Most districts use a single center, but Nagaon uses three, while Kokrajhar, Tinsukia, and Jorhat use two each. Postal ballots were counted first, followed by EVMs.
Security was tightened significantly, with 25 companies of Central Armed Police Forces deployed to guard counting centers and strongrooms. This high-level security reflects the intense political climate and the potential for volatile outcomes.
The election featured 722 candidates, with Congress fielding the highest number at 99, followed by BJP at 90, and AIUDF at 30. Other parties like TMC and AAP contested in 22 and 18 seats, respectively, while 258 candidates ran as independents.
The early trends suggest a decisive victory for the ruling NDA, but the final results will depend on the remaining constituencies. The NDA’s lead in 93 seats against Congress’s 23 indicates a significant mandate for the current government. The Congress’s performance, particularly in key urban centers, will be closely watched. The role of defections, such as those of Bordoloi and Borah, has clearly influenced the outcome, shifting the balance of power in several critical seats.
Early trends in the Assam Assembly Elections 2026 strongly favor the BJP and its NDA allies, with the ruling coalition ahead in 93 constituencies compared to the Congress’s 23. The defection of key Congress leaders like Pradyut Bordoloi and Bhupen Borah to the BJP has provided a tangible boost to the NDA’s numbers. As counting continues across the state’s 126 constituencies, the BJP’s lead in 52 individual seats suggests a likely third consecutive term for Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma. The opposition’s hope of a “Three-Gogoi” coalition victory faces an uphill battle against the current momentum. If these trends hold, Assam will see a continued BJP-dominated government, reinforcing Prime Minister Modi’s influence in the northeast. The stability of the NDA government will likely focus on consolidating its gains in rural and semi-urban areas, while the Congress may need to regroup and analyze its performance in urban hubs like Guwahati and Jorhat.
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