Pressure Mounts on Gavin Newsom as Eric Swalwell Campaign Crumbles

Key Takeaways

• Top Democrats urge Governor Gavin Newsom to intervene in the fractured California governor's race following allegations against Eric Swalwell.
• Newsom is currently analyzing polling data to prevent a scenario where two Republicans advance in the June 2 primary.
• The governor's preferred candidate, Sen. Alex Padilla, has decided not to run, leaving the field wide open and uncertain.
• Mail-in ballots are set to be distributed in under three weeks, forcing a rapid resolution or strategic shift by key party leaders.

The fractured political landscape of California has intensified following the withdrawal of Eric Swalwell from the gubernatorial contest amid sexual misconduct allegations, leaving Governor Gavin Newsom under significant pressure to intervene. While the chaos is not officially the governor's mess, a dozen leading Democrats believe he must attempt to stabilize the situation. Since CNN and the San Francisco Chronicle broke the news on Friday night, Newsom has engaged in a marathon of calls and meetings regarding the future of the California governor's race.

Four individuals familiar with the governor's thinking report that he is currently struggling to comprehend the new landscape of the race, eagerly awaiting fresh polling data to assess the situation. His primary concern is avoiding a "red-alert scenario" where two Republicans advance in the nonpartisan June 2 primary, effectively locking Democrats out of the governorship. A source close to the governor stated that he is watching closely and intends to do everything possible to prevent such a lockout, though he has not yet committed to a specific course of action.

The stakes extend beyond the immediate direction of the state. As the term-limited governor prepares to launch a presidential campaign, his successor holds the power to either cement his legacy or reverse it, potentially backing investigations that could complicate a future White House run. The collapse of Eric Swalwell, who had been inching toward a top position by default due to a mix of voter recognition and insider support, has created a vacuum of uncertainty.

The Search for a Unifying Candidate

The race has become a fractured field where the former Venn diagram of Swalwell's support base is now a question mark for advisers. Candidates and their teams admit they can only make "wishful guesses" about where the displaced support will flow, as no clear frontrunner has emerged. Even candidates who previously polled in the low single digits have shown no interest in dropping out, meaning all names will remain on the ballot.

Newsom has been in constant communication with political heavyweights, including former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, whose phone calls and texts have been pouring in. Despite the urgent calls for leadership from within the party, the governor faces a dilemma regarding his preferred candidate, Sen. Alex Padilla. Newsom had previously appointed Padilla to the U.S. Senate and pushed him to lead the state, believing his story of resisting a Homeland Security Secretary's press conference could resonate in a state where Trump is deeply unpopular. However, Padilla decided against running in November, citing opposition from his wife and the impact on his children.

The governor also harbors reservations about other potential contenders. He reportedly feels the billionaire investor Tom Steyer might be too inconsistent in his positions, worries that former congresswoman Katie Porter could harm the state's business environment, and maintains a contentious personal relationship with San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan. Furthermore, he has had a strained history with former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and has concerns about former HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra's tenure as state attorney general.

The Limits of Influence

With no set plans discussed yet, the political machinery remains in a state of suspended animation. Aides note that while some Democrats may feel embarrassed by the quickly withdrawn endorsements for Swalwell, a coordinated strategy has yet to form. Adam Schiff, who previously endorsed Swalwell, has warned that Democrats could be shut out of the runoff, though he has not specified his current role in the unfolding drama.

Most political observers acknowledge that a last-minute write-in campaign from Vice President Kamala Harris, who passed on running for governor last summer, is merely political chatter. The clock is ticking, with mail-in ballots set to be distributed in just under three weeks. This timeline suggests a narrow window for Newsom to exert influence before the election process solidifies.

Rusty Hicks, the California Democratic Party chairman, emphasized that while Newsom is a crucial voice, he is not the only one. He noted that the governor is watching the situation closely and that the decision to intervene ultimately rests with him. As the state faces a potential split in the Democratic vote that could allow a Republican to win, the pressure on the governor to demonstrate leadership and prevent a lockout remains the defining narrative of this election cycle.

The Governor's Path Forward

The unfolding crisis in the California governor's race highlights the delicate balance of power within the state's Democratic party. While the governor has declined direct comment on his specific plans, the sheer volume of pressure from party elites suggests that his inaction is not an option if a Republican victory looms. The lack of a clear, unified alternative to Eric Swalwell means that any endorsement from Newsom, potentially coordinated with Nancy Pelosi and Adam Schiff, could be the catalyst needed to consolidate the fractured field. However, the governor's known reluctance to pick "winners and losers" within his own party complicates this strategy. If he fails to act decisively in the next few weeks before mail-in ballots are sent out, the risk of a two-way Republican runoff increases, potentially altering the trajectory of California's politics for years to come and impacting Newsom's own presidential ambitions.