Delhi, UP Sizzle as El Niño Fears Fuel Severe India Heatwave

Key Takeaways

• IMD issues orange alerts for Delhi, Punjab, and Haryana as temperatures exceed 45°C.
• Banda, UP, records 48.2°C, while J&K tourism gardens suffer premature flower drying.
• Scientists link intensity to potential El Niño, with 62-80% probability projected for 2026.
• Vulnerable populations face heightened risks as heatwaves lack official disaster classification.

NEW DELHI: Several parts of India remained in the grip of an intense heatwave on Wednesday, with temperatures soaring far above seasonal averages. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) warned that severe heat conditions are likely to continue across North-West and Central India in the coming days.

The weather department issued an IMD orange alert for Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, and Chandigarh, warning of heatwave to severe heatwave conditions. Simultaneously, red alerts were sounded for warm night conditions in parts of Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and Vidarbha.

Delhi Hovers at 44 to 45 Degrees Celsius

In the national capital, temperatures hovered between 44 and 45 degrees Celsius, with isolated pockets expected to witness severe heatwave-like conditions. The IMD indicated that Delhi could see temperatures touch around 46 degrees Celsius under the orange alert category, signaling residents to be prepared for extreme weather. The capital recorded its first official heatwave day of the month on Tuesday, as dry winds and blistering sunshine pushed temperatures beyond 45 degrees Celsius.

The intense heat worsened pollution levels, with Delhi’s Air Quality Index (AQI) slipping into the ‘poor’ category at 336 on Tuesday. This prompted the Commission for Air Quality Management (CAQM) to activate Stage 1 of the Graded Response Action Plan (GRAP) across Delhi-NCR. By Wednesday morning, the AQI improved slightly to 177, remaining in the ‘moderate’ category, according to data from the Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB). Minimum temperatures in Delhi also remained above normal, worsening discomfort levels during the night. Safdarjung recorded a minimum of 28.3 degrees Celsius, 1.8 notches above normal, while Palal recorded 28.5 degrees Celsius. Lodhi Road, Ridge, and Ayanagar also remained above seasonal averages.

UP’s Banda Emerges Among Hottest Locations

The heatwave has been particularly brutal in Uttar Pradesh’s Banda district, where temperatures crossed 48 degrees Celsius. Meteorologists stated that the Bundelkhand district has repeatedly emerged among the hottest locations in Asia this month. Banda recorded a scorching 48.2 degrees Celsius on Tuesday, turning roads soft and heating metal surfaces dangerously.

Prayagraj also reeled under an intensified heatwave, with mercury soaring to 45.8°C, making it the fourth-hottest city in Uttar Pradesh after Banda, Jhansi, and Agra Taj. The IMD issued red warnings for several districts in UP, including Agra, Firozabad, Etawah, and Jhansi.

Explaining the extreme temperatures in Banda, IMD senior scientist Mohammad Danish told TOI that Southern UP missed the cooling impact of western disturbances earlier in the month. He added that hard and stony terrain absorbs heat rapidly under direct sunlight and releases it slowly, making Banda highly vulnerable. Meteorologists also blamed strong dry westerly winds from the Thar desert, clear skies, and intense solar radiation for the worsening heat.

Heat Damages Tourism Gardens in J&K

The unusual heat has affected tourism and horticulture sectors. At Jakhani Park in Udhampur, Jammu and Kashmir, hybrid seasonal flowers have reportedly dried up weeks before their normal blooming cycle due to sudden temperature rises. Located along the Jammu-Srinagar National Highway, the park is a major stopover for tourists. Assistant Floriculture Officer Pawan Kumar told ANI that the general longevity of these flowers would be until the end of May, but due to the heat, they are drying up prematurely. Officials have shifted watering schedules to evening hours to reduce evaporation.

Why India’s Heatwave Is Becoming More Intense

Meteorologists linked part of the current heatwave to normal seasonal patterns, noting that April and May are traditionally hot due to strong solar radiation and low-pressure systems over Rajasthan. However, scientists say the intensity is amplified by global climate factors, especially the possible development of El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Niño disrupts atmospheric circulation patterns and is linked with weak monsoons and extreme pre-monsoon heat.

The World Meteorological Organisation has projected a 62 to 80 per cent probability of El Niño conditions developing between May and August 2026. The IMD has flagged the likely development of these conditions this year. Some scientists warn of a potential "super El Niño," with sea surface temperatures rising by more than 2 degrees Celsius. Dr Paul Roundy of the State University of New York at Albany noted there is "real potential for the strongest El Niño event in 140 years." Similarly, Dr Andy Hazelton of the University of Miami stated that models point to a very strong El Niño with significant global impacts.

Historically, El Niño years such as 1987, 2002, 2009, and 2015 were associated with below-normal monsoons and severe heatwaves. Climate experts warn that India is witnessing a steady rise in the frequency, duration, and intensity of heatwaves, with several of the hottest years on record occurring within the last decade. Despite this threat, heatwaves are not officially classified as a notified disaster under India’s central disaster management framework, limiting compensation and adaptation funding. The impact is severe on the informal workforce, including construction workers and street vendors.

IMD Issues Heat Safety Advisory

Amid worsening conditions, the IMD urged people to follow heat safety measures. "Heatwave preparedness is essential during extreme temperatures!" the IMD said in a public advisory. They advised staying hydrated, keeping cool, avoiding stale food, and protecting vulnerable groups. The weather office recommended drinking water regularly, avoiding direct sunlight during peak afternoon hours, wearing loose cotton clothing, and consuming water-rich fruits. Children, elderly people, and outdoor workers require extra care during intense heat conditions.

Future Impacts of Rising El Niño Probabilities

With the probability of El Niño conditions reaching up to 80% through August 2026, India faces the potential for even more severe pre-monsoon heatwaves and weakened monsoons. The lack of official disaster classification for heatwaves exacerbates the crisis for the informal workforce, who lack compensation mechanisms. As climate models point toward a potentially historic "super El Niño," the frequency and intensity of such extreme weather events are expected to increase, necessitating long-term adaptation funding and stricter safety protocols for outdoor laborers and agriculture sectors.