Democrats Seek Majority Expansion as Taylor Faces Lazar in High Stakes Wisconsin Supreme Court election

Key Takeaways

• Democrats aim to secure a 5-2 majority in the Wisconsin Supreme Court election against conservative challenger Maria Lazar.
• Chris Taylor leads in fundraising with over $5.6 million compared to Lazar's nearly $900,000 raised since the fall.
• Key debates center on abortion rights and voter ID laws following recent federal executive orders on election integrity.
• The outcome will influence the court's composition through the end of the decade before the 2027 race.

One year after Elon Musk spent millions unsuccessfully trying to sway the outcome, Democrats are preparing for a critical Tuesday ballot in Wisconsin. The Wisconsin Supreme Court election pits liberal judge Chris Taylor against conservative Maria Lazar to replace retiring Justice Rebecca Bradley. While the court is already held by a 4-3 liberal majority, this race determines whether Democrats can secure a 5-2 majority to cement their control through 2030.

Despite the high stakes, the contest has flown under the radar compared to the previous year's historic judicial race. However, top Democratic figures view the outcome as a crucial gauge of enthusiasm and a test of Republican turnout without President Donald Trump on the ballot. The campaign has seen significant spending, though it remains far below the $80 million spent in the 2025 contest.

Chris Taylor, a state appeals court judge from Dane County and former Democratic legislator, holds a substantial financial advantage. Campaign reports indicate Taylor has raised more than $5.6 million since entering the race in May. In contrast, Maria Lazar, a Waukesha County judge and former assistant state attorney general, has raised nearly $900,000 since her campaign launch in the fall. Mark Graul, a GOP strategist, warned that this financial disparity signals a difficult path for conservatives, noting that successful past candidates usually shared a background as prosecutors with strong law enforcement backing.

The race has become a proxy battle over social and legal issues, particularly regarding abortion rights. In their lone debate, the candidates clashed over the recent court ruling that struck down Wisconsin's 176-year-old abortion ban. Lazar argued that the Supreme Court moved authority over abortion to the states and stated she would honor the state's ban on abortions after 20 weeks. She described this position as a compromise and suggested legislative action for those who disagree.

Conversely, Taylor labeled her opponent's stance as tragic, citing the impacts on victims of rape and incest and women who have died due to a lack of medical help. She argued that her opponent would take the state backwards, while she would move it forwards. The tension in the debate was palpable, with Lazar becoming visibly agitated by Taylor's descriptions of the consequences of the conservative position.

Beyond abortion, the candidates diverged on election integrity measures. This discussion arose just days after President Donald Trump signed an executive order cracking down on mail-in voting. Taylor expressed concern over potential voter suppression efforts, arguing for a strong court to hold the federal government accountable. Lazar affirmed she would uphold the state's voter ID law, which voters approved last year, while distinguishing her stance from broader federal efforts, calling early and mail-in voting responsible and necessary.

Both candidates have sought to distance themselves from the political turbulence of the past six years. Lazar explicitly stated that Joe Biden won the 2020 election, attempting to separate herself from factions denying the results. Meanwhile, the Democratic Party is heavily mobilized around the race. Devin Remiker, chair of the Wisconsin Democratic Party, emphasized the need for a pro-democracy majority on the bench to last through the next presidential election and into 2030.

The campaign has drawn high-profile national support for Taylor. Former US Ambassador Rahm Emanuel visited the state, while former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Senators Mark Kelly and Chris Murphy signed fundraising appeals. Former President Barack Obama also posted a call to action for voters to support the liberal judge. Former Attorney General Eric Holder campaigned in the state during the final stretch of the contest.

A Marquette Law School poll conducted in mid-March reveals a competitive and undecided electorate. The data shows that 53% of registered voters remain undecided, with 23% supporting Taylor and 17% favoring Lazar. This uncertainty suggests the financial advantage held by Taylor has yet to fully translate into a decisive lead in voter preference, highlighting the potential for a close finish on Tuesday.

Conservative Strategy Reevaluation After Taylor Leads

The potential for a Taylor victory has prompted internal calls for a conservative recalibration. Justice Annette Ziegler, who also announced her retirement for the 2027 cycle, joined retiring Justice Bradley in warning of an "alarming shift" toward bitter partisanship on the court. Bradley explicitly stated that the conservative movement must identify its failures and fix them to regain traction.

Strategists like Mark Graul suggest that while candidates with prosecutorial experience and law enforcement backing, like Lazar, fit the profile of past successful conservatives, the party must now focus on winning back suburban voters in the southeastern portion of the state. Graul argues that communicating a message of fairness is essential to appealing to these crucial demographics. If Taylor succeeds, the resulting 5-2 majority would likely ensure Democratic control of the court remains secure through the next judicial vacancy in 2027, solidifying their hold for the remainder of the decade.