The Strait of Hormuz and Economic Shockwaves

The conflict has had immediate and severe consequences for global energy markets. The US-Iran war has led to a spike in oil prices, roiling the global economy and creating political headaches for Trump’s Republican Party ahead of the November midterm elections. The core of this economic disruption is the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil trade.

Before the war, the strait functioned as a free-flowing international waterway, carrying roughly one-fifth of the world’s traded oil. However, Tehran shut the waterway in response to US and Israeli strikes on February 18 that initiated the conflict. Despite repeated claims from Washington that the strait remains open, only a handful of vessels now pass through daily.

Tehran has taken aggressive steps to enforce this blockade. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reported that two oil tankers struck mines and were disabled while attempting unauthorized transit. Separately, Saudi shipping firm Bahri reported the death of two Filipino sailors in an attack on their vessel earlier in the week.

To further tighten control, Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) added 11 more ships to its blacklist for alleged "noncompliance," bringing the total number of blacklisted vessels to 56. The PGSA warned that these vessels would face fines, seizures, or confiscation unless they submitted required documentation to Iran before attempting to cross.

Trump has insisted that the US maintains "very strong control" of the strait, stating on Wednesday that US forces were helping bring "lots of boats out every day with millions of barrels of oil." He claimed the Navy was escorting approximately 30 ships out of the strait daily, a significant drop from the pre-war average of 130 ships per day.

“Every once in a while they shoot a drone, and we knock it down. We have control, very strong control,” Trump said, dismissing the severity of the disruption.

Domestic Political Fallout and Strategic Stalemate

The war has not only disrupted global markets but has also impacted Trump’s domestic standing. According to a poll by Reuters and Ipsos in August, only 31 percent of Americans approve of the war, while 63 percent disapprove. Voter dissatisfaction is particularly acute regarding fuel costs. Since the fighting resumed this weekend, the price of Brent crude oil has climbed to approximately $95, an increase of more than 30 percent from the start of the war.

This economic pain is reflected in Trump’s approval rating, which has fallen from 40 percent to 33 percent since the conflict began. Despite the political headwinds, Trump insists that the upcoming elections are not influencing his military strategy.

“Number one, I’m not running. My party is running, and I’m going to help my party,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. He emphasized that his primary goal was preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, a claim Tehran has consistently denied.

Experts suggest that Iran is employing a strategy of asymmetric cost-imposition. Tariq Khan, a retired Pakistani lieutenant-general and former commander of the Pakistan Army’s Frontier Corps, described the US as being in an “increasingly uncomfortable strategic position.”

“The US has not succeeded in restoring the maritime environment that existed before the war, and is now expending military resources to deal with a problem the war itself helped create,” Khan told Al Jazeera, referring to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Khan argued that Iran understands it cannot defeat the US in conventional warfare. Instead, Tehran’s goal is to make the war politically and economically unaffordable for Washington. “Iran does not need a battlefield victory; it needs to remain standing, keep the economic disruption alive, and make the war politically costly for the US,” Khan explained.

“If Trump escalates, Iran can portray America as being drawn deeper into another Middle Eastern war; if he restrains himself, Tehran can claim that American military superiority cannot compel Iran to surrender,” he added.

Global Economy Faces Prolonged Instability

The ongoing conflict in the US-Iran war signals a future of sustained economic volatility and geopolitical uncertainty. With oil prices already up 30 percent and the Strait of Hormuz effectively contested, global supply chains remain fragile. As Donald Trump maintains a stance of military readiness while facing domestic political pressure, the likelihood of prolonged economic disruption increases. If the blockade persists, the resulting inflation and energy shortages could severely impact voter sentiment ahead of the midterms, forcing a potential recalibration of US foreign policy or further escalation to assert maritime dominance.