Although some tankers have continued to pass through the strait in recent weeks, volumes remain very low. Missile, drone, and speedboat attacks, along with threats against vessels, have repeatedly driven up oil prices during the six-month conflict. Any further disruption could send another shock through global energy markets. Beyond the Persian Gulf, Iran could rely on its regional allies to increase pressure on shipping routes. The Iran-backed Houthis have already restricted Red Sea shipping through attacks and threats against vessels, including warnings over Saudi shipping that carries crude towards Asia through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

This disruption is increasingly affecting shipping decisions. Industry sources indicate that Chinese shipping companies are now rerouting vessels away from Bab el-Mandeb. Further attacks could heighten concerns in the oil market. Recent incidents include an attack targeting a vessel near Saudi Arabia’s main Red Sea oil terminal at Yanbu and a drone strike near the Suez Canal. These actions demonstrate the expanding geographic scope of the conflict and its impact on global trade routes.

In addition to physical attacks, Iran could seek to retaliate beyond the Middle East through cyber operations or covert attacks. Western countries are largely beyond the range of Iran’s principal missile systems, but the Revolutionary Guards have historically used alternative methods to target adversaries. Britain has reported that Iran-linked hackers shut down a small electricity station, while US officials have said Tehran was likely behind cyberattacks on water plants in Minnesota. Iran has not commented on those allegations. Western security services have also accused Iran of recruiting people to carry out attacks or assassination attempts in Western countries, which Tehran has denied.

With direct US-Iran fighting now resuming, Tehran’s response could therefore extend well beyond the battlefield. Any decision to target Gulf energy infrastructure, choke shipping through Hormuz, widen attacks in the Red Sea, or strike Western interests would risk turning the latest escalation into a broader regional and global crisis. The Gulf states energy infrastructure is increasingly vulnerable to these multifaceted threats, including potential cyber warfare and physical sabotage. As the conflict drags on, the economic implications for global energy markets remain severe, with prices already volatile due to repeated attacks and threats.

Global Energy Markets Tremble Amid Escalation

The resumption of direct US-Iran fighting signifies a dangerous new phase in the six-month conflict, with Tehran actively considering retaliatory strikes that could permanently alter global energy dynamics. If Tehran follows through on threats to close the Strait of Hormuz or attack Gulf states energy infrastructure, global oil supplies could face prolonged shortages, leading to sustained price spikes. The involvement of proxy groups like the Houthis in the Red Sea further complicates maritime security, potentially forcing a long-term restructuring of global shipping routes. As cyber threats to Western critical infrastructure rise, the conflict risks expanding into a broader, multi-theater confrontation with severe economic and geopolitical consequences for all involved parties.